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- Ok we got Aug 24-25 to watch out for, George is saying economic related.
Funny you should bring that up i posted this last week on an other Forum all indications are showing that n equity crash is coming and it will be sever there are also big problems in the Bond market they are close to levels just before the crash in 2008
The Hindenburg Omen Indicates Stock Market Crash is Cominghttp://www.activistpost.com/2010/08/...ck-market.html On Thursday August 12, the US equities market triggered a confirmed technical indicator known as the “Hindenburg Omen." This omen, as you may have guessed, suggests that a stock market crash is on the way. However, it doesn’t mean just any crash -- according to Albert Edwards, a London-based strategist at Societe Generale SA, the indicator means “a savage equity downturn is imminent."
The level of attention and significance given to this omen is truly unparalleled in the world of technical analysis, and for good reason.
* Every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen.
* Based on historical stats, the probability of a panic sellout is 41%, while the probability of a major stock market crash is 24%.
* Out of the previous 25 confirmed signals, only 8% (two) have failed to predict at least a mild decline in equities markets.
* The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen is 77%, and usually takes place within the next 40 days.
As a result, the Hindenburg Omen is indeed the most feared indicator for Wall Street bulls. However, when the infamous omen starts showing itself two times in two days, that’s when things can get really scary.
Thursday, August 12, was indeed a Hindenburg Omen; 100% confirmed by technical analysts worldwide. I’ve come across news stories in English, French, German, Italian, and Portuguese all proclaiming the arrival of the dreaded Omen. Suffice to say -- it’s a big deal covered by every major financial outlet, and nobody in the industry doubts its significance.
However just one day before this on Wednesday, August 11, the omen almost happened as well. To trigger a full blown omen, the number of 52-week highs, and 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2% of the total issues traded that day. There are several other criteria that must be met as well, but that is the #1 and most important factor. Simply out, it shows that the tug of war between bulls and bears is at extreme and unsustainable levels.
Looking at the NYSE August 11, 67 stocks made new 52-week highs. Had this number been 69, the Hindenburg Omen would have officially triggered that day.
Just 2 stocks prevented the Omen from appearing on Wednesday. A few analysts took note, but there was not much of a reaction to this, as technical indicators either are, or aren’t confirmed. However, the very next day the Omen confirmed itself without a doubt.
What we have here is very close to seeing two Omens in back-to-back trading. If that Wednesday triggered a full blown signal, I have no doubt we’d be witnessing a media frenzy hyping up back-to-back market crashing omens. But just 2 NYSE stocks managed to prevent this event.
While I do follow the rules of technical analysis to a great degree, I find it more than unsettling that just 2 NYSE stocks can impact the broader market to this extent. Looking at the markets as a whole, these 2 stocks that prevented the Omen from triggering are borderline irrelevant. As far as I’m concerned the Aug 11 omen was close enough, that I’m staying out of equities for the next 40 days.
There is the way it is ........ and the way it is going to be
When we stop consenting to play, the game will end. Got it?
Dreaded Hindenburg Omen Will Play Out Within 4 Weeks http://www.infowars.com/dreaded-hind...ithin-4-weeks/ UBS Financial Services Director Art Cashin says that we’ll know within 3 or 4 weeks whether the dreaded Hindenburg Omen, a set of market factors that precede a stock market collapse, will unfold as many are now predicting.
The Hindenburg Omen, named after the May 1937 Hindenburg disaster during which the German zeppelin LZ 129 Hindenburg suddenly caught fire and was destroyed, is a technical analysis that, when fulfilled, portends a greater likelihood of a stock market collapse.
Although conditions for the Hindenburg Omen have been met previously without a subsequent stock market crash, there has never been an actual crash without it being preceded by a Hindenburg Omen.
Zero Hedge summarizes the five criteria for the Hindenburg Omen to be in effect that have now been met.
1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
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Financial forecaster Gerald Celente, who has a proven track record in being accurate, told a radio show on Saturday that the stock market would crash before the end of 2010, appearing to confirm the worst consequences of the Hindenburg Omen.
David Buik at BGC Partners is another market analyst raising the alarm over the Hindenburg Omen, which he describes as “easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism”. Ominously choosing Friday the 13th as the date on which he drew attention to the matter, Bulk warned that the technical outlook suggests a stock market collapse is imminent.
When asked by CNBC what his advice would be for traders, UBS’ Art Cashin said that investors should be “very cautious” because “there’s been a lot of buzz in the street about the Hindenburg Omen – that’s when you have a very large amount of 52-week highs and 52-week lows, which tells you that the market is confused,” adding that “It bears watching, it’s a bit of a warning—it isn’t confirmed, but we will know in the next 3 or 4 weeks.”
Watch the clip from CNBC below.
Time to Fear the Hindenburg Omen?
Published: Friday, 13 Aug 2010 | 10:10 AM ET
Text Size
By: Robin Knight
CNBC Associate Web Producer
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There is disagreement over whether the New York Stock Exchange is giving signs of the much-feared Hindenburg Omen or not, but investors shouldn't place too much store in the crash indicator, Daryl Guppy, CEO of Guppytraders.com, told CNBC.com.
AP
The omen, named after a German airship that burst into flames while making a landing in the late 1930s, was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash. Some market watchers have been sounding the alarm and claim the omen is back.
Financial Web sites Zero Hedge and Gold Seek both claimed that all five of the omen's criteria were satisfied on Thursday.
The criteria for the omen are fairly complex, but are focused on the level of uncertainty within the NYSE. It watches for a lack of conviction among investors.
The omen is triggered when more than 2.2 percent of the NYSE Composite Index's stocks are finding new highs while another 2.2 percent or more of the issues are creating new lows. The lesser of the two numbers has to be larger than or equal to 69. The NYSE 10 also has to be rising and the McClellan Oscillator — a measure of market breadth based on advancing and declining stocks — has to be negative on that day.
If all of those criteria are met then the warning bell sounds.
"The Hindenburg Omen is index specific to the NYSE with seemingly exact requirements… This type of exactitude is often a result of statistical curve fitting and this signals caution. It's what I call a prima-donna indicator rather than a robust analysis tool," Guppy said.
There is disagreement about whether the NYSE is giving the right signal, according to Guppy. Some analysts claim it is citing their data, and others not, he said.
"I wouldn’t be reacting just to this ominous sounding omen alone," he added.
"This is not to dismiss the indicator, but like all good technical analysis, the signals from one indicator should be verified using signals from another indicator that measures the same events in a different way," Guppy said.
The NYSE is developing a head-and-shoulder reversal pattern, which is not yet fully verified, according to Guppy.
"It’s a rare double-right shoulder, but the same pattern as 1930," he said.
Guppy has previously warned CNBC that US stocks were repeating a pattern not seen since the Great Depression. The pattern, most clearly seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, showed a strong correlation between the market slumps of 1929 and 2008, he said. If it can’t invalidate the pattern, but could prove a bearish signal for the index, he claimed.
© 2010 CNBC.com
Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:49 am
